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This programme provides a continuation of Flagship 1: Ground Motion Simulation and Validation and Flagship 2: Liquefaction impacts on land and infrastructure as well as the inclusion of other geohazards (Fault rupture, landslides), and the integrated treatment of these geohazards in earthquake resilience context.
Monthly research calls and presentation slides/material (click this link)
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Research Context
This disciplinary theme will advance physics-based methods of ground motion prediction that have been pioneered in NZ over the past five years4,11–13, specifically through higher-resolution near-surface14 and crustal-scale15 modelling to high frequencies; explicit treatment of parameter and modelling uncertainties16; and comprehensive validation of ground motion simulation methods directly against observations from historical. State-of-the-art prediction of liquefaction phenomena and consequences will be advanced through the use of undisturbed sampling methods17 for inter-bedded, pumiceous, and residual soils, in-situ penetration testing, and utilization of non-invasive 3D geophysical inverse methods15. Advanced seismic effective stress analyses, considering spatial variability18 and modelling uncertainties, will further quantify the extent of liquefaction-induced ground deformations19 and their role on surface ground motions20,21. Utilisation of unparalleled geotechnical datasets in NZ22 will be combined with liquefaction surface manifestation observations to develop neural-network-based empirical liquefaction models. Detailed analysis of displacements along historical fault surface ruptures, using newly developed remote sensing datasets and differencing techniques, will provide an empirical basis for modelling fault displacement hazards. Machine learning and physics-based models will further explore the role of surface ruptures in causing other geohazards, including flooding and landslides. Based on data collection and analysis of slope failures in the 2010-2011 Canterbury7 and Kaikōura8 earthquakes, empirical and physics-based predictive methodologies for rockfall run-out and slope stability modelling23 will be validated, parametric regional models will be refined using comprehensive data on geological and geotechnical strength properties of NZ deposits, and real-time sensing solutions will be utilised to understand the potential for incipient slope instabilities and that of post-earthquake slopes that may undergo further movement during aftershock and heavy rainfall events.
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