Disciplinary Theme Leaders: Brendon Bradley (Brendon.bradley@canterbury.ac.nz), Rolando Orense (r.orense@auckland.ac.nz), Tim Stahl (timothy.stahl@canterbury.ac.nz) 

Industry Reps: Jeff Fraser (JFraser@golder.co.nz), Sjoerd van Ballegooy (SVanBallegooy@tonkintaylor.co.nz), Doug Mason

Summary

Earthquake-induced ground motions, liquefaction, and other geohazards (e.g., fault surface ruptures and landslides) are primary causes of damage and disruption to the built and natural environments. An improved fundamental understanding of such phenomena, and subsequent improvements in predictive capability are essential to understanding the impacts of seismic events on rural and urban infrastructure. The recent 2010-2011 Canterbury and 2016 Kaikōura earthquakes have aptly illustrated significant ground motions1,2 and near-surface site amplifications3,4; extensive liquefaction of land and damage to over 8000 residential homes in Christchurch5, and port facilities in Wellington6; and landslides and slope instability in Christchurch’s Port Hills7 and the State Highway 1 road and rail network on the Kaikōura coastline8–10 causing closure for over 1 year. Datasets and consequent knowledge amassed by QuakeCoRE researchers and their collaborators provide internationally-unique opportunities toward advances in understanding and modelling these geohazards individually, as well as unified data collection and modelling approaches to enable integrated predictions to more efficiently mitigate future impacts.

Links to QuakeCoRE Phase 1 (2016-2021)

This programme provides a continuation of Flagship 1: Ground Motion Simulation and Validation and Flagship 2: Liquefaction impacts on land and infrastructure as well as the inclusion of other geohazards (Fault rupture, landslides), and the integrated treatment of these geohazards in earthquake resilience context.

Monthly research calls and presentation slides/material (click this link)


Research Context

This disciplinary theme will advance physics-based methods of ground motion prediction that have been pioneered in NZ over the past five years4,11–13, specifically through higher-resolution near-surface14 and crustal-scale15 modelling to high frequencies; explicit treatment of parameter and modelling uncertainties16; and comprehensive validation of ground motion simulation methods directly against observations from historical.  State-of-the-art prediction of liquefaction phenomena and consequences will be advanced through the use of undisturbed sampling methods17 for inter-bedded, pumiceous, and residual soils, in-situ penetration testing, and utilization of non-invasive 3D geophysical inverse methods15.  Advanced seismic effective stress analyses, considering spatial variability18 and modelling uncertainties, will further quantify the extent of liquefaction-induced ground deformations19 and their role on surface ground motions20,21. Utilisation of unparalleled geotechnical datasets in NZ22 will be combined with liquefaction surface manifestation observations to develop neural-network-based empirical liquefaction models.  Detailed analysis of displacements along historical fault surface ruptures, using newly developed remote sensing datasets and differencing techniques, will provide an empirical basis for modelling fault displacement hazards. Machine learning and physics-based models will further explore the role of surface ruptures in causing other geohazards, including flooding and landslides. Based on data collection and analysis of slope failures in the 2010-2011 Canterbury7 and Kaikōura8 earthquakes, empirical and physics-based predictive methodologies for rockfall run-out and slope stability modelling23 will be validated, parametric regional models will be refined using comprehensive data on geological and geotechnical strength properties of NZ deposits, and real-time sensing solutions will be utilised to understand the potential for incipient slope instabilities and that of post-earthquake slopes that may undergo further movement during aftershock and heavy rainfall events. 

The multi-dimensional nature of the disciplinary theme will be practically organized around four specific work plans that are based around the three sub-disciplines, and an integration strand, these are:

  1. Ground-motion modelling
  2. Liquefaction impacts on land and infrastructure
  3. Surface rupture and slope stability
  4. Geohazard integration

1. Ground-motion modelling

Activities within strand 1 are framed around six key themes that collectively enable simulation-based ground-motion modelling with high predictive capability and precision.

1.1. Development and refinement of ground motion simulation methods that enable the generation of acceleration time series for the seismic response analysis of infrastructure.

1.2. Development of ‘velocity models’ of the earth’s crust in new regions of New Zealand, or improvements in existing regions.

1.3. Develop, validate, and apply models for nonlinear near surface site and topographic response for use in conjunction with ground motion simulation methods.

1.4. Utilize ground motion simulations to forecast the severity of ground shaking over spatially-distributed regions in future major New Zealand earthquakes

1.5. Examination of modelling uncertainties in ground motion simulation methods and utilization for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.

1.6. Explore the role of simulated ground motions for use in seismic response analysis of engineering infrastructure, including comparisons with as recorded ground motions and development of procedures for simulated ground motions in infrastructure seismic design guidelines.

2. Liquefaction impacts on land and infrastructure

The research activities in this strand 2 comprise new approaches and methodologies designed to assess and quantify the impacts of soil liquefaction on land and infrastructure through: (a) fundamental understanding of the onset and effects of liquefaction; and (b) application of these methods to assess, and possibly minimise, its impact to the built environment. These projects involve developing and using novel field, laboratory, and numerical tools and methods for evaluating liquefaction hazards and assessing their impacts on infrastructure, with emphasis on NZ-specific soils. The specific key themes are:

2.1. Advancement of Liquefaction Assessment

2.2. Historical Evidence of NZ Liquefaction

2.3. Dynamic Characterisation of Natural Pumiceous Deposits

2.4. Tools and Procedures for Seismic Effective Stress Analysis

3. Surface rupture and slope stability

Projects within this strand 3 have two primary aims: (i) improve current understanding of hazards and risks associated with fault surface rupture and coseismic slope instability and (ii) develop and apply state-of-the-art fault rupture and landslide models. Both aims are linked by a focus on utilising high-resolution topography, remote sensing, and machine-learning approaches; integration with available HPC resources will assist with the high computational demand of the projects. Specific themes are:

3.1. Empirical data on fault surface ruptures in New Zealand

3.2. Slope stability

3.3. Improved simulation of fault displacement geohazards

4. Geohazard integration

The aim of this fourth strand of the programme is to pursue targeted activities that lead to direct integration of the different sub-disciplinary strands 1-3. A case study focus on the Wellington region will be undertaken in order to provide a geographical context in which integration occurs naturally.

4.1: Explicit site response analysis in simulations of historical and future earthquakes in Wellington

4.2: Ground motion and slope instability modelling, including topographic amplification, in Wellington

4.3: Spatially-distributed prediction of geohazards along the Wellington Transportation corridor

Outline of aligned funding

New Zealand: This DT1 programme is intentionally aligned to major on-going activities in NZ (as well as with international partners) in order to achieve leverage and create a community of researchers in this disciplinary area with sufficient critical mass.  In addition to having mapped existing activities that are funded through numerous small sources (such as university PhD scholarships) this programme has also considered alignment with the following major sources of external funding:

  • EQC Capability funding (5 EQC grants with PIs: Bradley, Cubrinovski, Stahl, Wotherspoon, Stirling)
  • The National Seismic Hazard Model (PI: Gerstenberger)
  • Earthquake-induced landscape dynamics (PI: Massey)

International:


Research Programme Deliverables


Deliverables / Milestones

Due Date

1.1 Simulation of 2000 historical crustal and subduction earthquakes in New Zealand since 2003 and comparison with conventional empirical methods of ground motion prediction

31 December 2022

1.2 Implementation of 20 sedimentary basin models in the NZ Velocity Model and 4 basin models of high quality constrained with geophysical data

31 December 2022

1.3 Full-waveform inversion of the NZ Velocity Model and comparison of the predictive advances achievable compared with travel-time-based models

31 December 2023

1.4 Scenario simulations of Wellington and Hikurangi earthquake ruptures provided in the form of visual animations and quantitative data downloadable for use in response history analysis of structure

31 December 2023

1.5 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis maps of NZ that are based on simulations that use a 100m spatial grid

31 December 2024

2.1 Integration of field, laboratory and computational tools to develop next-generation liquefaction methods and procedures (silty soils; gravelly soils)

31 December 2022

2.2 Development of historical liquefaction database in New Zealand to support and inform geotechnical engineers

31 December 2023

2.3  Formulation of design guidelines in evaluating the dynamic properties and  liquefaction potential of natural pumiceous deposits

31 December 2022

2.4  Implementation of effective stress models and evaluation of liquefaction impacts for micro- and macro-systems (soil-foundation-structure system,

building-soil-building system, bridge system)

31 December 2024

3.1 3D Surface displacement fields from the Edgecumbe and Kaikōura earthquakes, and analysis of off-fault deformation and displacement distributions31 December 2022
3.2 Machine-learning models identifying relative importance of new and existing coseismic slope susceptibility variables for historical New Zealand earthquakes31 December 2023
3.3 Scenario simulations of off-fault damage and coseismic flooding near NZ active faults in high-risk regions (Wellington, Bay of Plenty, Canterbury) .31 December 2024

4.1 Perform numerical site response analyses for Wellington strong motion stations for historical earthquake events with simulated ground motions

as model inputs, and directly assess the fidelity of site response analyses in place of empirical models

31 December 2022
4.2 Apply slope stability and landslide prediction models to urban regions in Wellington in order to forecast the seismic vulnerability and risk, particularly the effect of alternative models31 December 2023
4.3 Provide an integrated geohazard assessment of the Wellington region and transportation corridor using the high-fidelity predictive models available31 December 2024

Current Projects

  • TBC

Workshops (archive of presented material)

2021

  • TBC


References

  1. Bradley, B. A. & Cubrinovski, M. Near-source strong ground motions observed in the 22 February 2011 Christchurch earthquake. Bull. N. Z. Soc. Earthq. Eng. 44, 181–194 (2011).
  2. Bradley, B. A. Strong ground motion characteristics observed in the 4 September 2010 Darfield, New Zealand earthquake. Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng. 42, 32–46 (2012).
  3. Jeong, S. & Bradley, B. A. Amplification of strong ground motions at Heathcote Valley during the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquakes: Observation and 1D site response analysis. Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng. 100, 345–356 (2017).
  4. Bradley, B. A., Razafindrakoto, H. N. T. & Polak, V. Ground‐Motion Observations from the 14 November 2016 Mw7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand, Earthquake and Insights from Broadband Simulations. Seismol. Res. Lett. 88, 740–756 (2017).
  5. Cubrinovski, M. et al. Geotechnical Aspects of the 22 February 2011 Christchurch Earthquake. Bull. N. Z. Soc. Earthq. Eng. 44, 205–226 (2011).
  6. Cubrinovski, M. et al. Liquefaction effects and associated damages observed at the Wellington CentrePort from the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake. Bull. N. Z. Soc. Earthq. Eng. 50, 152–173 (2017).
  7. Massey, C. I. et al. Determining Rockfall Risk in Christchurch Using Rockfalls Triggered by the 2010–2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence. Earthq. Spectra 30, 155–181 (2014).
  8. Massey, C. et al. Landslides Triggered by the 14 November 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura Earthquake, New Zealand. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 108, 1630–1648 (2018).
  9. Robinson, T. R., Rosser, N. J., Davies, T. R. H., Wilson, T. M. & Orchiston, C. Near‐Real‐Time Modeling of Landslide Impacts to Inform Rapid Response: An Example from the 2016 Kaikōura, New Zealand, Earthquake. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 108, 1665–1682 (2018).
  10. Allstadt, K. E. et al. Improving Near‐Real‐Time Coseismic Landslide Models: Lessons Learned from the 2016 Kaikōura, New Zealand, Earthquake. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 108, 1649–1664 (2018).
  11. Lee, R. L., Bradley, B. A., Stafford, P. J., Graves, R. W. & Rodriguez-Marek, A. Hybrid broadband ground motion simulation validation of small magnitude earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand. Earthq. Spectra 36, 673–699 (2020).
  12. Bradley, B. A. et al. Ground motion simulations of great earthquakes on the Alpine Fault: effect of hypocentre location and comparison with empirical modelling. N. Z. J. Geol. Geophys. 60, 188–198 (2017).
  13. Bradley, B. A., Pettinga, D., Baker, J. W. & Fraser, J. Guidance on the Utilization of Earthquake-Induced Ground Motion Simulations in Engineering Practice. Earthq. Spectra 33, 809–835 (2017).
  14. Thomson, E. M., Bradley, B. A. & Lee, R. L. Methodology and computational implementation of a New Zealand Velocity Model (NZVM2.0) for broadband ground motion simulation. N. Z. J. Geol. Geophys. 63, 110–127 (2020).
  15. Lee, E. & Chen, P. Improved Basin Structures in Southern California Obtained Through Full‐3D Seismic Waveform Tomography (F3DT). Seismol. Res. Lett. 87, 874–881 (2016).
  16. Hartzell, S., Frankel, A., Liu, P., Zeng, Y. & Rahman, S. Model and Parametric Uncertainty in Source-Based Kinematic Models of Earthquake Ground Motion. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 101, 2431–2452 (2011).
  17. Beyzaei, C. Z., Bray, J. D., Cubrinovski, M., Riemer, M. & Stringer, M. Laboratory-based characterization of shallow silty soils in southwest Christchurch. Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng. 110, 93–109 (2018).
  18. Ching, J., Wu, T.-J., Stuedlein, A. W. & Bong, T. Estimating horizontal scale of fluctuation with limited CPT soundings. Reliab. Anal. Geotech. Infrastruct. 9, 1597–1608 (2018).
  19. Cubrinovski, M., Robinson, K., Taylor, M., Hughes, M. & Orense, R. Lateral spreading and its impacts in urban areas in the 2010–2011 Christchurch earthquakes. N. Z. J. Geol. Geophys. 55, 255–269 (2012).
  20. Roten, D., Fäh, D. & Bonilla, L. F. High-frequency ground motion amplification during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake explained by soil dilatancy. Geophys. J. Int. (2013) doi:10.1093/gji/ggt001.
  21. Ishihara, K. & Cubrinovski, M. Characteristics of ground motion in liquefied deposits during earthquakes. J. Earthq. Eng. 9, 1–15 (2005).
  22. NZGD. New Zealand Geotechnical Database. https://www.nzgd.org.nz/.
  23. Dorren, L. K. A. A review of rockfall mechanics and modeling approaches. Prog. Phys. Geogr. 27, 69–87 (2003).



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