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Bellagamba - UC, Bradley - UC, Wotherspoon - UA, Hughes - UC
The recent 2016 Kaikoura earthquake and the 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthqu= ake Sequence illustrated the devastating effects of earthquakes in terms of= their impact on economic, social and personal life of the entire community= . While significant efforts have already been devoted on the improvement of= the building inventory, less attention has been devoted to spatially-distr= ibuted infrastructure providing crucial services like transportation, water= , power, telecommunication or sewerage. The purpose of this thesis is to ex= plore and improve the resilience of underground infrastructure, and to deve= lop a framework of advanced concepts of seismic performance assessment for = distributed infrastructure. The case study selected to illustrate the devel= oped concepts and tools is the water distribution network of the city of Ch= ristchurch both in the context of the Canterbury earthquakes and also futur= e seismic hazards in the Canterbury region.
This study can be decomposed into five different elements of research. F= irst, fragility functions for buried pipelines in liquefaction-prone soils = are developed using the Canterbury earthquake dataset. To make this model w= idely applicable, unknown parameters are replaced by random variables, incr= easing the uncertainty of the model. It should improve the accuracy of loss= assessment studies for underground pipe network in liquefaction-prone soil= s.
Second, network resilience analyses are conducted. These analyses cover = the seismic performance of the network as well as the recovery of its funct= ionality. Results are given in terms of potential service reduction, as mod= els are currently unable to accurately predict the amplitude of a single pi= pe failure. Three types of analyses are conducted: historical cases (e.g. 2= 011 February earthquake), scenario analyses (e.g. Alpine fault rupture, Por= ter Pass fault rupture) and probabilistic analyses. The results obtained wi= ll help communities improving their preparation to such events.
The third objective aims to quantify the probabilistic seismic hazard ef= fect on the long-term maintenance costs. The realization of this objective = will help network managers to provision their finances accordingly based on= their accepted risk.
The penultimate objective is to estimate the benefits of pipe replacemen= t given the applied maintenance strategy. The quantification of the potenti= al benefits can help network operators and decision-makers to select the ap= propriate strategy given their available resources and goals.
Finally, the last objective is devoted to the development of a tool to e= stimate the most probable break locations following an earthquake. It can s= erve as a post-disaster decision-support tool to prioritize inspections and= repairs, where they are most needed, and thus to reduce the global impact = on the community.
In summary, the combination and application of the aforementioned resear= ch elements delivers new, efficient and intelligent tools to help decision-= makers improve the seismic resilience of their social units (community, net= work operator company, insurance company or other). This should lead = to a comprehensive mitigation and transfer of the seismic risks as well as = a reduction of the earthquake impacts on their social units.
Aghababaei - UA, Costello - UA, Ranjitkar - UA
The performance of infrastructure in natural disasters, especially lifel= ines such as the transportation network, is critical to the resilience of c= ommunities and the economy at large. In addition, transportation networks p= lay a major role in the recovery operation, both in terms of access for the= emergency services and the repair of other infrastructure. This project wi= ll focus on the assessment of the resilience of the transportation network = on the West Coast of the South Island in New Zealand. A network model will = be built in AIMSUN, a specialist transportation simulation software. The pe= rformance of the network will then be modelled and assessed under the impac= t of a range of natural hazards. It is also planned to attempt calibration = of the model using data from the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake. The model can th= en be used to help inform the relevant transport agencies on priorities for= resilience improvements on their networks.
Afzal- UA, Ranjitkar - UA, Costello - UA
The performance of infrastructure in natural disasters, especially lifel= ines such as the transportation network, is critical to the resilience of c= ommunities and the economy at large. In addition, transportation networks p= lay a major role in evacuation and in the recovery operation, both in terms= of access for the emergency services and the repair of other infrastructur= e. This project will focus on the assessment of the resilience of Auckland= =E2=80=99s transportation network. Auckland city, with a population of almo= st 1.5 million, is situated on a volcanic field and, being a coastal city, = is susceptible to Tsunamis. A network model will be built in Aimsun, a spec= ialist transportation simulation software. The performance of the network w= ill then be modelled and assessed under the impact of a range of natural ha= zards. For example, the performance of the network under a mass evacuation = in the event of a volcanic eruption will be assessed. The model could then = be used to help inform the relevant transport agencies on priorities for re= silience improvements on their networks.
Valizideh - UA, Shamseldin - UA, Wotherspoon - UA
This study propose a novel methodology to evaluate the technical resilie= nce of urban stormwater systems to flooding hazards. Three technical aspect= s in stormwater management; urban hydrological characteristics, hydraulic c= apacity of the system, and network structures properties are taken into acc= ount to evaluate resilience degree of the system. The outcome of this study= will provide the framework to quantify the temporal nature of system robus= tness and functionality and evaluate the resilience degree of stormwater ma= nagement systems in the conveyance of different extreme rainfall events and= disaster scenarios.
Liu - UA, Nair - UA
This study will develop a resilience estimation methodology and as=
sociated tools for electricity distribution infrastructure factoring variou=
s natural hazard spatial temporal data, component fragility models, network=
connectivity and realistic cascaded outages. These tools will help to deve=
lop interdependency models with other distributed infrastructure networks t=
o better understand overall infrastructure resilience to extreme natural ha=
zards as a result of actions taken (pre-disaster mitigation or planning for=
post-disaster rapid recovery)
Output:
1. A natural hazard scenario based network outage simulation tool
2. Electric power system resilience metrics for case studies quantifying c=
onsequences of hazards to help assess network components, network int=
erdependencies and future development of 'national report card' for r=
esilience rating.
Whittaker - UA, Melville - UA
Electricity networks are vital for a functioning society, and their loss= due to large-scale natural disasters such as tsunamis can have devastating= consequences. This project will investigate the hydrodynamic loading chara= cteristics of power poles, a vital component of the electricity network, un= der tsunami attack. A series of scaled physical experiments will quantify t= he relationship between the tsunami bore characteristics and the force exer= ted on different power pole structures with and without debris. Results fro= m the physical experiments will be compared to available field data from th= e Chile 2010 tsunami. The hydrodynamic forces measured during tests of repr= esentative New Zealand power poles will be input into a structural model to= determine the relationship between the tsunami characteristics and the dama= ge/failure states of the power poles. The resulting fragility curves will b= e imported into RiskScape, and will form the basis of the analysis of the e= lectricity network resilience to tsunamis.
Hughes, UC, van Ballegooy T&T, Wotherspoon - UA
Through the 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES), liquefaction= -induced permanent ground deformations caused severe damage to infrastructu= re lifelines such as roads, potable water, waste water and storm water syst= ems. In contrast to the performance of these systems, Christchurch=E2=80=99= s electricity network, managed by Orion, sustained comparatively less damag= e due to investment in seismic design and retrofit of its assets. However, = much of Orion=E2=80=99s current network lies within urban landscapes that e= xperienced significant horizontal and vertical ground movements through the= CES, which raises questions on whether ground strains stretched the buried= cabling and influenced long-term damage rates. We propose here a spatiotem= poral correlation between cable repairs and measured CES horizontal movemen= ts and lateral strains. Pre-, syn- and post-CES Orion repair data will be s= patially correlated with remotely sensed datasets of horizontal ground defo= rmations derived from LiDAR surveys and satellite imagery, with vertical mo= vements and angular distortions derived from LiDAR surveys, and with CPT-ba= sed liquefaction vulnerability parameters. The study will elucidate the sei= smic performance of Orion=E2=80=99s network in liquefiable through the CES,= and inform electricity lifeline providers elsewhere on future of seismic i= mpacts. In addition, the study will characterise any potential long-term sy= stem repair rates resulting from the extensive seismically-induced ground d= eformation.
Crawford-Flett - QC, Shamseldin - UA, Wotherspoon - UA
Stopbank networks are a critical distributed infrastructure network, pro= viding the primary means of flood protection for people and properties in m= any New Zealand communities. Damage to this network may have significant ec= onomic and social impacts; therefore, a clear understanding of the attribut= es of this system is needed to be able to assess the expected performance a= nd impacts. The aim of this project to develop a database of the New Zealan= d stopbank networks, with a specific focus on earth stopbank structures. Th= is project will characterise the stopbanks using a range of hydrologic and = geotechnical attributes to allow for the assessment of performance across a= number of hazards.
The database developed in this project will form the basis for future re= search in this area. Without a centralised stopbank information repository,= any detailed analysis on the performance of the system, both in terms of f= lood hazard and the cascading effect of other natural hazard events, would = not be possible. The project will provide an initial spatial analysis frame= work that can be extended to assess the impact of potential stopbank failur= e on other infrastructure.
Uma - GNS, Prasanna - Mas, McDonald - ME, Horspool - GNS
Infrastructure network is likely to suffer damage under natural hazards = resulting in disruption to the levels of services (LOS) that can be availab= le for the end-users. In order to quantify the extent disruption and assess= the economic and societal impact, several models and tools are developed o= r being developed in the research and commercial arena (e.g. Riskscape, EPA= NET, MERIT etc.). The impact assessment process requires various models rep= resenting: (i) natural hazard; (ii) network assets / components; (iii) vuln= erability/fragility of components; (iv) integrated performance of network c= omponents considering intradependencies within the network; and (v) interde= pendencies among the networks.
It is acknowledged that a number of research programmes are underway wit= h funding from the Resilience to Nature=E2=80=99s Challenges, QuakeCoRE, NH= RP and other sources, contributing towards infrastructure network performan= ce at different capacities in terms of scope and features. Even though thes= e models are developed for their own specific purposes, at present there is= no structured framework to link different models together, in terms of wha= t is needed in the flow from one model to the next so that integrated impac= t assessment can be performed. For this purpose we are going to develop a d= etailed linkage structure framework to link the models and identify potenti= al modifications to software modules to refine inflows into successive mode= ls.
Tang - UC, Scott - UC, Hughes - UC
The 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES ) caused widespread da= mage to Christchurch City=E2=80=99s wastewater network, resulting from perm= anent liquefaction-induced ground deformation and transient seismic shaking= . Network damage led to significant loss of services and community disrupti= on, in addition to environmental contamination. Although most of the Christ= church network has been repaired, questions remain on exact pipe damage mec= hanisms, structural performance and how earthquake impacts affected the ser= vice lifetimes of pipes. This study will use a dataset of concrete and rein= forced concrete (rubber ring-jointed) pipes, with pre-and post-CES Closed C= ircuit Television (CCTV) observations, to assess earthquake-induced changes= to structural condition related to pipe material and age, ground condition= s and seismic parameters. Results will provide Christchurch asset managers = with better information for their ongoing pipe renewals programmes, and pro= vide asset managers in New Zealand and internationally information with whi= ch they can plan for anticipated earthquake impacts on their own pipe netwo= rks. To date a subset of pipes has been selected, and a review of pre-CES C= CTV footage to improve and standardise structural performance observations = is under way.