Flagship Leader: Brendon Bradley (Brendon.bradley@canterbury.ac.nz)
Flagship Deputy: Didier Pettinga
Flagship Summary
This flagship will provide a paradigm shift in strong ground motion prediction in New Zealand and internationally through the use of high-fidelity physics-based prediction methods, which merge state-of-the-art knowledge in strong motion seismology and geotechnical earthquake engineering. The impact of this flagship will result from the reduction in the design level seismic hazard in many regions through an increased prediction precision, identification of regions with an increased seismic hazard resulting from systematic basin and topographic ground motion phenomena; quantification of ground motion intensity affecting spatially distributed infrastructure networks.
The key thrust areas are:
- Development and refinement of ground motion simulation methods that enable the generation of acceleration time series for the seismic response analysis of infrastructure.
- Development of ‘velocity models’ of the earth’s crust in new regions of New Zealand, or improvements in existing regions.
- Develop, validate, and apply models for nonlinear near surface site and topographic response for use in conjunction with ground motion simulation methods.
- Utilize ground motion simulations to forecast the severity of ground shaking over spatially-distributed regions in future major New Zealand earthquakes.
- Examination of modelling uncertainties in ground motion simulation methods and utilization for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.
- Explore the role of simulated ground motions for use in seismic response analysis of engineering infrastructure, including comparisons with as recorded ground motions and development of procedures for simulated ground motions in infrastructure seismic design guidelines.
Thrust Areas | Key tasks/Deliverables | Start | Finish |
FP1.1 Simulation methods | 1. Integrate existing codes used in New Zealand into NeSI computational resources | 1/01/2016 | 31/12/2016 |
2. Validate simulations using historical New Zealand earthquakes | 1/01/2016 | 31/12/2020 | |
FP1.2 Velocity model development | 1. Develop enhanced 3D velocity models in two regions of New Zealand | 1/01/2016 | 31/12/2018 |
2. Utilize full waveform tomography for high-resolution velocity modelling | 1/01/2018 | 31/12/2020 | |
FP1.3 Nonlinear site and topographic response | 1. Directly integrate site response and topography into ground motion simulations vs. the use of Vs30. Examine the effects in Canterbury and Wellington | 1/01/2016 | 31/12/2019 |
2. Perform detailed analysis on when site-specific account for nonlinear and topographic effects is justified vs. simplified approaches | 1/01/2018 | 31/12/2020 | |
FP1.4 Application for major New Zealand scenarios | 1. Perform ground motion simulation case studies for cross-flagship research and outreach and compare with empirical predictions | 1/01/2016 | 31/12/2018 |
2. Develop a ‘Ground motion simulation atlas’ illustrating seismic intensity over a region for 50 earthquake ruptures which are greatest risk to New Zealand | 1/01/2017 | 31/12/2019 |
2018 RfP Information
Next Flagship RfP Collaboration Meeting: Thursday 28th September from 9-10 AM
Draft Flagship Programme 2018:
Area | Planned Task | Key People | % |
1: Simulation validation (a. Multi-segment rupture; b. South-island shallow crustal events; c. Subduction zone events) | FP1.1 | Bradley, Lee, Somerville, Vyas | 35% |
2: Development of sedimentary basin models in Wellington and Auckland using rapid methods | FP1.2 | Wotherspoon, Bradley, Jeong, Cox | 10% |
3: Explicit site response analysis coupled to simulations of the Kaikoura earthquake | FP1.3 | de la Torre, McGann, Bradley, Wotherspoon, Cubrinovski | 8% |
4. Topographic modelling of Kaikoura, Alpine scenarios | FP1.3 | Taborda, Asimaki, Jeong, Bradley | 2% |
5. Simulation of major scenario earthquakes (Wellington Fault, Hikurangi subduction, Auckland rift) | FP1.4 | Dempsey, Bradley (via Eq Case Study) | 10% |
6. Gm simulation with uncertainties (a. Validation, b. PSHA for NZ) | FP1.5 | Razafindrakoto, Lee, Tarbali, Bradley | 20% |
7. Use of GM simulations in practice (a. Application for code-based, b. Guidance doc) | FP1.6 | Hayden, Chandramohan, Pettinga, McGann, Bradley | 15% |
RfP Projects are being sought in the following areas:
Across all six FP1 thrust areas
Current Projects
...
- 17084 - Development of a NZ-wide Vs30 model for use in regional ground motion simulations (Bradley, Foster - UC; Wotherspoon - UA; Somerville, Hosseini - AECOM; Thompson - USGS)
- 17085 - Waveform tomography of a South Island Velocity Model and simulation of major Hope Fault earthquakes on the South Island, NZ (Bradley, Lee, Thomson, Pettinga - UC; Wald - USGS; Horspool - GNS)
- 17086 - Response history analyses of structural and geotechnical systems using simulated and recorded ground motions (Pettinga - Holmes; Fraser - Golder; Bradley, Tarbali - UC; Baker - Stanford)
- 17088 - A 3D shear wave velocity model for Dunedin: Data gathering and interpretation (Stirling, Gorman, Holt - Otago; Wotherspoon - UA)
- 17114 - Development of a seismic velocity model and site characterisation for the Nelson/Tasman region (Wotherspoon - UA; Ryder - MWH/UA; Bradley, Foster - UC; Ghisetti - TerraGeologica)
- 17133 - Ground motion simulations for Hauraki rift earthquakes (Dempsey, Eccles - UA)
- 16/17FP1 - Ground motion simulation of Porters Pass earthquakes in the Canterbury region (Nazer, Bradley, Razafindrakoto, Pettinga - UC)
- 17AF8 - Ground motion simulation of Alpine Fault earthquakes (Bradley, Bae + AF8 project)
- 17KAIK - Ground motion simulation of the Mw7.8 Kaikoura earthquake (Bradley, Razafindrakoto, Polak)
- 17CYB - Cybershake: Simulation-based seismic hazard for the Canterbury region (Tarbali, Bradley)
...